Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Max Holloway
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
38
Age
Δ 3y
35
22-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-10
L2
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Conor McGregor
Max Holloway
86
Sig strikes landed
97
178
Sig strikes attempted
188
93
Total strikes landed
120
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.80
102s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
32 fights · 23-9
Last 5
L
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
—
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—