Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Meng Bo
Arisa Matsuda
75%
25%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 1y
32
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bo: 52 sig / 3 TD ·
Matsuda: 40 sig / 0 TD
Meng Bo
Arisa Matsuda
24
Sig strikes landed
22
50
Sig strikes attempted
57
68
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.3
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
180s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Meng Bo
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
W1
Arisa Matsuda
9-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
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