Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryoga Arimoto
Joseph Larcinese
62%
38%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arimoto: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Larcinese: 81 sig / 2 TD
Ryoga Arimoto
Joseph Larcinese
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
70
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryoga Arimoto
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Joseph Larcinese
"Big Sexy"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28