Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jin Aoi
YoungJae Song
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
16-8-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
10-2-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Aoi: 17 sig / 5 TD ·
Song: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jin Aoi
YoungJae Song
34
Sig strikes landed
50
79
Sig strikes attempted
85
55
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
162s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jin Aoi
16-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—
Blue corner
L1
YoungJae Song
"Super Rookie"
10-2-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2
—