Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Santiago Luna
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 10y
22
19-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
9-0
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mitchell: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Luna: 9 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Santiago Luna
34
Sig strikes landed
34
67
Sig strikes attempted
69
57
Total strikes landed
42
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.8
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
186s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
Blue corner
W2
Santiago Luna
"BorderBoy"
9-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—