Main
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iwo Baraniewski
Junior Tafa
81%
19%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
9-0
Career record
Δ 38 pp
8-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baraniewski: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Tafa: 0 sig / 0 TD
Iwo Baraniewski
Junior Tafa
29
Sig strikes landed
14
48
Sig strikes attempted
29
38
Total strikes landed
7
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
-9s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
9-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Junior Tafa
"The Juggernaut"
8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalen…
—
L
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—