Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Fares Ziam
Tom Nolan
64%
36%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
19-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-1
W6
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ziam: 16 sig / 3 TD ·
Nolan: 31 sig / 2 TD
Fares Ziam
Tom Nolan
45
Sig strikes landed
34
94
Sig strikes attempted
81
60
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
19-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W4
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—