Prelims1
Catch Weight
Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Alessandro Costa
30%
70%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
17-11
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Schnell: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 19 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Alessandro Costa
38
Sig strikes landed
48
110
Sig strikes attempted
92
48
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
73s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 7-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
16-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Du…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—