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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Priscila Cachoeira
Chelsea Chandler
52% 48%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
13-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
6-5
L2
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cachoeira: 7 sig / 1 TD · Chandler: 11 sig / 0 TD
Priscila Cachoeira
Chelsea Chandler
46
Sig strikes landed
53
93
Sig strikes attempted
106
65
Total strikes landed
70
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
95s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Priscila Cachoeira

"Zombie Girl"
13-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 13 fights · 5-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
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W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
L UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
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L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
L2

Chelsea Chandler

6-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
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L UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
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W UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—