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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jeisla Chaves
Yuneisy Duben
67% 33%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Chaves: 64 sig / 3 TD · Duben: 62 sig / 2 TD
Jeisla Chaves
Yuneisy Duben
45
Sig strikes landed
31
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
80
Total strikes landed
43
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jeisla Chaves

"A Braba"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1

Yuneisy Duben

6-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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