Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ketlen Souza
Ariane Carnelossi
61%
39%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
62"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
17-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-5
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Souza: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Carnelossi: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ketlen Souza
Ariane Carnelossi
42
Sig strikes landed
33
84
Sig strikes attempted
75
69
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ketlen Souza
"Esquentadinha"
17-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15-5
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—