Main
Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
·Galaxy Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Carlston Harris
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
32
Age
Δ 7y
39
23-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-9
L1
Current streak
L2
23
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Harris: 27 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Carlston Harris
49
Sig strikes landed
35
97
Sig strikes attempted
81
71
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
163s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
23 fights · 15-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
L2
Carlston Harris
"Mocambique"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—