Back to UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Main Bantamweight

Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo ·Galaxy Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kai Asakura
Cameron Smotherman
73% 27%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
22-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
12-8
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Asakura: 9 sig / 0 TD · Smotherman: 3 sig / 0 TD
Kai Asakura
Cameron Smotherman
48
Sig strikes landed
41
114
Sig strikes attempted
123
60
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kai Asakura

22-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
L UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
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Blue corner
L2

Cameron Smotherman

"The Baby-Faced Killa"
12-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
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