Main
Catch Weight
Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Christian Edwards
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
L1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bukauskas: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 36 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Christian Edwards
41
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
80
57
Total strikes landed
44
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
Blue corner
Christian Edwards
"Pain"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28