Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Malcolm Wellmaker
Juan Diaz
35%
65%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Wellmaker: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 13 sig / 5 TD
Malcolm Wellmaker
Juan Diaz
36
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
73
47
Total strikes landed
46
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
44s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Malcolm Wellmaker
"The Machine"
10-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
Blue corner
Juan Diaz
"Pegajoso"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28