Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tuco Tokkos
Ivan Erslan
48%
52%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 1y
34
12-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-7
W1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tokkos: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Erslan: 37 sig / 2 TD
Tuco Tokkos
Ivan Erslan
31
Sig strikes landed
30
64
Sig strikes attempted
52
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
219s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tuco Tokkos
12-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
L3
Ivan Erslan
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
L
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—