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Prelims1 Flyweight

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Daniel Barez
Luis Gurule
56% 44%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
17-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barez: 113 sig / 1 TD · Gurule: 149 sig / 1 TD
Daniel Barez
Luis Gurule
52
Sig strikes landed
40
113
Sig strikes attempted
111
62
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Daniel Barez

17-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
L UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
Blue corner
L3

Luis Gurule

"Grim"
11-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
L UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…