Back to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Alice Ardelean
Polyana Viana
60% 40%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
13-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-10
W2
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ardelean: 46 sig / 1 TD · Viana: 34 sig / 0 TD
Alice Ardelean
Polyana Viana
54
Sig strikes landed
61
104
Sig strikes attempted
129
81
Total strikes landed
81
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
114s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Alice Ardelean

13-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
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L UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
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Blue corner
L3

Polyana Viana

"Dama de Ferro"
13-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 11 fights · 4-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
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L UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
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L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—