Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Jared Gordon
66%
34%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
43
Age
Δ 5y
38
39-20
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-10
L1
Current streak
L1
41
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 7 sig / 2 TD
Jim Miller
Jared Gordon
32
Sig strikes landed
66
78
Sig strikes attempted
99
48
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
91s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
41 fights · 23-17
Last 5
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—