Prelims1
Lightweight
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Mateusz Rebecki
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
24-4-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Dawson: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Rebecki: 33 sig / 1 TD
Grant Dawson
Mateusz Rebecki
54
Sig strikes landed
39
118
Sig strikes attempted
81
89
Total strikes landed
69
3.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
9.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
378s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 11-2
Last 5
L
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
Blue corner
L2
Mateusz Rebecki
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—