Prelims1
Welterweight
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joel Alvarez
Yaroslav Amosov
32%
68%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
24-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
31-1
W4
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alvarez: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Amosov: 16 sig / 6 TD
Joel Alvarez
Yaroslav Amosov
32
Sig strikes landed
22
71
Sig strikes attempted
49
47
Total strikes landed
42
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
83s
Control time
276s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Yaroslav Amosov
31-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—