Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ateba Gautier
Ozzy Diaz
82%
18%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
24
Age
Δ 11y
36
12-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-4
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gautier: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 6 sig / 0 TD
Ateba Gautier
Ozzy Diaz
48
Sig strikes landed
30
112
Sig strikes attempted
78
61
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
-1s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ateba Gautier
"The Storm"
12-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ozzy Diaz
11-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—