Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
King Green
Jeremy Stephens
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
40
Age
Δ 0y
40
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-24
W2
Current streak
L6
29
UFC fights in our DB
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Green: 57 sig / 1 TD ·
Stephens: 5 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Jeremy Stephens
81
Sig strikes landed
43
132
Sig strikes attempted
107
92
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.90
Knockdowns
0.20
47s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
29 fights · 15-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L6
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
27 fights · 11-15
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—