Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sean Brady
Joaquin Buckley
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
19-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
21-9
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brady: 77 sig / 4 TD ·
Buckley: 5 sig / 0 TD
Sean Brady
Joaquin Buckley
62
Sig strikes landed
54
123
Sig strikes attempted
126
86
Total strikes landed
66
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
212s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sean Brady
19-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
L1
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—