Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Hokit
Derrick Lewis
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
29
Age
Δ 13y
41
10-0
Career record
Δ 33 pp
29-14
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Josh Hokit
Derrick Lewis
49
Sig strikes landed
27
72
Sig strikes attempted
79
72
Total strikes landed
39
2.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Josh Hokit
10-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
—
W
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
Blue corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
31 fights · 20-11
Last 5
L
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—