Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Ruffy
Michael Chandler
69%
31%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
30
Age
Δ 10y
40
14-2
Career record
Δ 20 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Mauricio Ruffy
Michael Chandler
43
Sig strikes landed
31
85
Sig strikes attempted
58
56
Total strikes landed
49
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
Blue corner
L3
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—