Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Aiemann Zahabi
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
32
Age
Δ 7y
39
20-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-2
W1
Current streak
W7
15
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Sean O'Malley
Aiemann Zahabi
78
Sig strikes landed
65
160
Sig strikes attempted
132
74
Total strikes landed
66
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
L
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
Blue corner
W7
Aiemann Zahabi
"Icemann"
15-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—