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Main Featherweight

Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marwan Rahiki
Ollie Schmid
78% 22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rahiki: 22 sig / 0 TD · Schmid: 9 sig / 0 TD
Marwan Rahiki
Ollie Schmid
46
Sig strikes landed
38
90
Sig strikes attempted
94
79
Total strikes landed
49
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
190s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Marwan Rahiki

"Freaky"
10-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
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Blue corner

Ollie Schmid

"The Hungarian Stallion"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25