Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Steve Erceg
41%
59%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
39
Age
Δ 9y
31
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-4
W2
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 90 sig / 2 TD ·
Erceg: 136 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Steve Erceg
54
Sig strikes landed
54
126
Sig strikes attempted
118
71
Total strikes landed
73
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
236s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
21 fights · 10-11
Last 5
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W1
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—