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Main Heavyweight

Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Louie Sutherland
57% 43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
15-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
11-6
L6
Current streak
L2
17
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tuivasa: 13 sig / 0 TD · Sutherland: 21 sig / 5 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Louie Sutherland
22
Sig strikes landed
34
39
Sig strikes attempted
53
36
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L6

Tai Tuivasa

"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 17 fights · 8-9
Last 5
L UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
L UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
L2

Louie Sutherland

"Vanilla Gorilla"
11-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
L UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—