Back to UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Prelims1 Middleweight

Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ben Johnston
Wes Schultz
39% 61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Johnston: 12 sig / 2 TD · Schultz: 12 sig / 0 TD
Ben Johnston
Wes Schultz
37
Sig strikes landed
22
70
Sig strikes attempted
58
49
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ben Johnston

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
L1

Wes Schultz

"Party Time"
9-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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