Prelims1
Welterweight
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Micallef
Themba Gorimbo
73%
27%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
11-1
Career record
Δ 28 pp
14-8
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Micallef: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Gorimbo: 39 sig / 2 TD
Jonathan Micallef
Themba Gorimbo
34
Sig strikes landed
28
81
Sig strikes attempted
73
46
Total strikes landed
43
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
90s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jonathan Micallef
"The Captain"
11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
Blue corner
L2
Themba Gorimbo
"Mamba"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—