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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colby Thicknesse
Vince Morales
77% 23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
27
Age
Δ 9y
36
10-1
Career record
Δ 34 pp
16-12
W1
Current streak
L5
2
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thicknesse: 46 sig / 0 TD · Morales: 48 sig / 2 TD
Colby Thicknesse
Vince Morales
55
Sig strikes landed
53
128
Sig strikes attempted
117
76
Total strikes landed
68
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
199s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Colby Thicknesse

"Slickness"
10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
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L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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Blue corner
L5

Vince Morales

"Vandetta"
16-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 11 fights · 3-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
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L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—