Back to UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Prelims1 Middleweight

Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jacob Malkoun
Gerald Meerschaert
51% 49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
31
Age
Δ 8y
38
11-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
37-23
W2
Current streak
L4
8
UFC fights in our DB
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Malkoun: 36 sig / 3 TD · Meerschaert: 32 sig / 0 TD
Jacob Malkoun
Gerald Meerschaert
41
Sig strikes landed
24
62
Sig strikes attempted
49
63
Total strikes landed
38
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
49%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Jacob Malkoun

"Mamba"
11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
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W UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
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L UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
Blue corner
L4

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 25 fights · 12-13
Last 5
L UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
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L UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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