Back to UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Prelims1 Lightweight

Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates ·RAC Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dom Mar Fan
Kody Steele
72% 28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
10-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
8-2
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mar Fan: 1 sig / 0 TD · Steele: 1 sig / 1 TD
Dom Mar Fan
Kody Steele
86
Sig strikes landed
54
181
Sig strikes attempted
138
103
Total strikes landed
75
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
114s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Dom Mar Fan

"Street Buddha"
10-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
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Blue corner
L1

Kody Steele

8-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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