Prelims1
Lightweight
Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Francis Marshall
Lucas Brennan
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marshall: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Brennan: 9 sig / 0 TD
Francis Marshall
Lucas Brennan
26
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
69
41
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francis Marshall
"Fire"
11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
Blue corner
Lucas Brennan
"Skywalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26