Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jafel Filho
Cody Durden
71%
29%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
18-5
Career record
Δ 18 pp
18-11-1
W1
Current streak
L4
5
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Filho: 23 sig / 2 TD ·
Durden: 34 sig / 5 TD
Jafel Filho
Cody Durden
33
Sig strikes landed
25
65
Sig strikes attempted
54
58
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
177s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
18-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L4
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18-11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—