Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcus Buchecha
Ryan Spann
32%
68%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
36
Age
Δ 2y
35
5-3-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
25-11
D1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Buchecha: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Spann: 15 sig / 0 TD
Marcus Buchecha
Ryan Spann
17
Sig strikes landed
37
41
Sig strikes attempted
63
35
Total strikes landed
60
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
172s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Marcus Buchecha
5-3-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—