Prelims1
Middleweight
Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jackson McVey
Sedriques Dumas
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
7-3
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-6
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McVey: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Dumas: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jackson McVey
Sedriques Dumas
25
Sig strikes landed
28
45
Sig strikes attempted
45
43
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jackson McVey
"The Moose"
7-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
Blue corner
L2
Sedriques Dumas
"The Reaper"
10-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—