Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Vicente Luque
47%
53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
22-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-13-1
W1
Current streak
L2
25
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gastelum: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Luque: 12 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Vicente Luque
53
Sig strikes landed
62
112
Sig strikes attempted
131
77
Total strikes landed
80
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
25 fights · 14-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
24 fights · 16-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—