Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Padilla
MarQuel Mederos
58%
42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-1-1
W4
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Padilla: 147 sig / 1 TD ·
Mederos: 112 sig / 1 TD
Chris Padilla
MarQuel Mederos
50
Sig strikes landed
41
116
Sig strikes attempted
87
61
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W3
MarQuel Mederos
12-1-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—