Back to UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Prelims2 Welterweight

Charles Radtke vs Francisco Prado

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg ·Kaseya Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Charles Radtke
Francisco Prado
38% 62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
13-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
L3
6
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Radtke: 24 sig / 4 TD · Prado: 29 sig / 0 TD
Charles Radtke
Francisco Prado
34
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
68
61
Total strikes landed
47
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
223s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Charles Radtke

"Chuck Buffalo"
13-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
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L UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
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W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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Blue corner
L3

Francisco Prado

12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
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L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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L UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
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W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
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L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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