Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patricio Pitbull
Aaron Pico
83%
17%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
38-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-6
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pitbull: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Pico: 100 sig / 6 TD
Patricio Pitbull
Aaron Pico
32
Sig strikes landed
25
57
Sig strikes attempted
56
50
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Patricio Pitbull
38-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
Blue corner
L1
Aaron Pico
14-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—