Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Nate Landwehr
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
42
Age
Δ 5y
38
32-14
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
L2
25
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Swanson: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Landwehr: 15 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Nate Landwehr
84
Sig strikes landed
64
166
Sig strikes attempted
147
90
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
25 fights · 15-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
L2
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—