Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Johnny Walker
51%
49%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
82"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
16-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Reyes: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Walker: 42 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Reyes
Johnny Walker
43
Sig strikes landed
45
81
Sig strikes attempted
85
47
Total strikes landed
50
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
71s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
16-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W1
Johnny Walker
23-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—