Main
Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Azamat Murzakanov
Paulo Costa
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
17-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-4
W6
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Murzakanov: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 55 sig / 0 TD
Azamat Murzakanov
Paulo Costa
62
Sig strikes landed
61
117
Sig strikes attempted
98
66
Total strikes landed
65
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
11s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Azamat Murzakanov
"The Professional"
17-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—