Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Gauge Young
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
19-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moises: 45 sig / 2 TD ·
Young: 122 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Gauge Young
51
Sig strikes landed
49
109
Sig strikes attempted
97
75
Total strikes landed
72
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
Blue corner
W1
Gauge Young
"Gee Money"
12-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—