Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mandel Nallo
Jai Herbert
64%
36%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
37
Age
Δ 1y
38
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nallo: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Herbert: 19 sig / 0 TD
Mandel Nallo
Jai Herbert
37
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
94
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mandel Nallo
"Mango"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner
L1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
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D
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
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W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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