Back to UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Prelims1 Lightweight

Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Lando Vannata
Darrius Flowers
54% 46%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
12-9-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
13-9-1
L2
Current streak
L3
13
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Vannata: 27 sig / 2 TD · Flowers: 20 sig / 2 TD
Lando Vannata
Darrius Flowers
43
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Lando Vannata

"Groovy"
12-9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 13 fights · 4-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
L3

Darrius Flowers

"Beast Mode"
13-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—