Prelims1
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alessandro Costa
Stewart Nicoll
70%
30%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
15-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Costa: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Nicoll: 47 sig / 0 TD
Alessandro Costa
Stewart Nicoll
43
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
79
61
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
15-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—